The well-being of small-scale farmers post-Covid-19 pandemic: A mediation-effect approach
Copyright © 2026 Long Bui‑Thanh, Van‑Phuc Phan, Tien D. N. Ho. Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd.
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
Abstract
Small-scale farmers are vulnerable to unpredictable threats, including climate disasters, price volatility, and health shocks. While the first two hazards occur frequently, farmers experienced both health crisis and market shock simultaneously during and post COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging unique information of 461 rural households collected in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta in 2023, this research investigates the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic hit farming household welfare as measured by income. Hence, the impacts of COVID-19 infection were analysed through two alternative proxies: (1) households with at least one infected member before vaccination; and (2) households’ perceptions of COVID-19 seriousness. The findings reveal that household income was largely negated by the COVID-19 pandemic irrespective of the proxies used. Quantile regression models uncover that the COVID-19 infection hit wealthier households harder than those in lower income groups, whereas the perception of COVID-19 seriousness had more negative influences on the lower tail of the income distribution. Further, the mediation analysis model exhibits that the pandemic directly reduced household welfare and hampered on-farm diversification in household income as a mediator. Hence, this study provides useful insight into the effectiveness of the recovery policies and the preparedness for future inevitable dangers, especially in rural communities.
Keywords: COVID-19 Infection, Household Welfare, Mediation Analysis, Quantile Regression, Rural Communities
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